Golf fans love a good head-to-head, and the Scottie Scheffler vs Rory McIlroy rivalry at the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St Louis has served up one of the best battles of the season. Scottie Scheffler, the world number one, is chasing his second win in a row and a second BMW Championship title in a row. Rory McIlroy, meanwhile, has gone from looking miles off the pace to sharing the first-round lead. So who’s really got the better chance of lifting the trophy on Sunday? Let’s break it down in plain English, using the latest form, stats and betting odds.
A Quick Look at the BMW Championship
The BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup Play-offs, a postseason series where the top 50 players in the standings battle it out. The winner gets to play in the next leg, the Tour Championship in East Lake, but the cut there is very tight indeed; only the top 30 players in the standings advance, which means that nobody is likely to be resting their feet during this week’s Bellerive showdown.
The course has changed since it hosted the 2018 PGA Championship, and the fairways have narrowed, which should favor longer hitters who can still hit the fairways consistently, as both our golfers should.
Scottie Scheffler’s Form Coming In
There is no understating how well golfer Scottie Scheffler has played recently. He came to Bellerive after posting an eight shot victory at the FedEx St Jude Championship, where he tied the course record and posted the best strokes gained putting in the field. He has 21 wins on the PGA Tour, four of which are majors, and is a heavy favorite to successfully defend his Player of the Year title for the fifth consecutive season. In addition, the 28-year-old is the defending champion of the BMW Championship, having won the title at Caves Valley in 2022.
It is no surprise then that the golfer was the overwhelming favorite at +300 to win the tournament, according to bookmakers. Data Golf, a website that provides statistical analysis for golf, even gave Scheffler roughly 18 to 23 percent chance to win before the start of the tournament, which was exceptional given that it attracted a 50-man field.
However, things did not go according to plan for the golfer, who posted a disappointing two-over 72, which included four bogies in the five holes, and confirmed that he was not in the best health, as he struggled to shake off a sore throat. Scheffler started the second round in similarly disappointing fashion and dropped to the bottom half of the pack.
Rory McIlroy’s Form Coming In
Final
Rory McIlroy’s story this week is the reverse of the previous one. Rory struggled through the summer, narrowly missing the cut at The Open and shooting a disappointing 66 th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, where he failed to break the par once. According to the Open champion himself, he was “well away” from his best game.
What has changed? Rory went back to his coach, Michael Bannon, in his home state of Florida, and spent a few days sharpening the feel in his swing needed to play his best golf under pressure. He has responded in kind, shooting a bogey-free six-under 64 to open up the BMW Championship, tying for the first-round lead. Rory is expected to contend again this week after his second round, which was also very good.
Rory’s course fit this week should also help. His distance off the tee along with his accuracy will allow him to attack the long par fives at Bellerive, which is a strength for him.
Head-to-Head: Stats That Actually Matter
Numbers don’t lie, and a few stand out when you compare the two players this week:
- Recent scoring: Scheffler shot 72 in round one and struggled again early in round two. McIlroy shot a bogey-free 64 and kept pace in round two.
- Course fit: McIlroy rates highest in course-fit data thanks to his driving distance and accuracy off the tee.
- Season-long form: Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in scoring average, strokes gained total, FedEx Cup points and earnings.
- Health: Scheffler was reportedly unwell during round one, which is a real factor that doesn’t show up in any stats table.
- Betting market movement: Scheffler drifted out to around 25/1 after round one, while McIlroy moved in to become the new market favourite with several UK bookmakers.
So, Who Has the Better Chance Right Now?
If you had asked this question on Wednesday, the answer would have been simple enough. It would have been Scheffler, and by a wide margin, as he was the shortest priced favourite for the BMW Championship in years. And he had good reason to be considering his season. But golf has a way of knocking everyone down, and it has done just that to Scheffler after two rounds.
McIlroy has the best chance to win this particular tournament, in my honest and unbiased opinion, as he is currently playing better golf than Scheffler, who seems to be playing a little below his usual level. However, if you are asking who has a better chance to win more tournaments this year or has the best season overall, it would most definitely still be Scheffler. Form guides are fickle things, and no amount of them can overshadow the sheer brilliance of a season that Scheffler has put together.
Golf has a funny way of going up and down, and just because Scheffler has had a poor Saturday, it does not mean he will continue to do so. He has come from behind in the standings before, so it would be best to keep an eye on the live leaderboard and not be so quick to jump to conclusions.
What This Means If You’re Watching or Betting
For casual fans, this is exactly the kind of storyline that makes golf worth watching on a Sunday afternoon: the in-form underdog chasing down the world number one on his own turf. For anyone following the betting markets, the smarter move right now looks like respecting McIlroy’s form while not writing Scheffler off completely, since his price has drifted to a level that could offer value if he finds his rhythm over the weekend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite to win the 2026 BMW Championship?
Scottie Scheffler opened as the clear favourite before the tournament, but after Rory McIlroy’s bogey-free first round and Scheffler’s shaky start, several bookmakers moved McIlroy up to favourite.
Why did Scottie Scheffler struggle in round one?
Scheffler made four bogeys in a five-hole stretch and appeared to be unwell, sounding hoarse when speaking to reporters after his round.
What is the BMW Championship, exactly?
It’s the second event of the FedEx Cup Play-offs on the PGA Tour, featuring the top 50 players in the season standings. Only the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship the following week.
Has Rory McIlroy won the BMW Championship before?
Yes, McIlroy has won this event multiple times in his career, and his length off the tee has always suited courses like Bellerive that favour long hitters.
